Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.407695 32.715014 36.500865 41.217832 47.030120 54.089136 63.529307
2025-06-08 24.393891 28.478217 33.568450 40.589787 50.405943 64.337622 87.192036
2025-06-15 21.214974 25.606427 31.421613 40.089644 53.542567 75.579482 120.574787
2025-06-22 19.045622 23.571193 29.850391 39.816938 56.752838 88.574821 171.726809
2025-06-29 17.243102 21.724970 28.157961 38.865028 58.427267 99.867353 239.901980
2025-07-06 16.524304 21.272951 28.378561 40.943830 66.268153 130.486804 488.623943
2025-07-13 15.413279 20.098614 27.287997 40.492544 68.890968 151.112245 930.416004
2025-07-20 14.620101 19.306968 26.681536 40.763375 73.237728 183.280878 3304.595484
2025-07-27 13.958448 18.644661 26.189019 41.129684 78.029930 226.717376 NaN
2025-08-03 13.310738 17.941615 25.535389 41.031615 81.627567 275.038236 NaN
2025-08-10 12.670269 17.196554 24.724223 40.449302 83.658552 323.208041 NaN
2025-08-17 12.197864 16.686335 24.273200 40.562348 87.992388 411.930298 NaN
2025-08-24 11.704607 16.114643 23.668793 40.263168 91.070874 518.826539 NaN
2025-08-31 11.226568 15.537911 23.004410 39.723059 93.179743 647.930289 NaN
2025-09-07 10.801638 15.024237 22.413635 39.267312 95.524515 839.985823 NaN
2025-09-14 10.436637 14.590132 21.936499 39.015168 98.706364 1181.997879 NaN
2025-09-21 10.028757 14.060381 21.234826 38.099089 98.670869 1477.660067 NaN
2025-09-28 9.957536 14.104770 21.648477 40.111901 113.724804 7751.910459 NaN
2025-10-05 9.647514 13.714316 21.168452 39.676488 116.401152 41107.733622 NaN
2025-10-12 9.424559 13.465557 20.953982 39.938765 123.384739 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.224101 13.245934 20.781044 40.293086 131.544740 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.997806 12.968789 20.468799 40.198353 136.998331 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.746816 12.636156 20.019144 39.635334 138.925704 NaN NaN